By Leigh Andrews

TNS Research Surveys held the first of its Freshsplash breakfast sessions for the year on 28 January, at TNS House in Cresta. I attended the breakfast, which gave a glimpse into future innovations and trends in the TNS stable. Dr Irene Hubertz, Global Insights Director of TNS based in Frankfurt, provided an overview of key macro trends and consumer trends from 2008, which she predicts will carry over into 2009.

Hubertz touched on trends such as the impact of global power shifts on the economy – this includes the growing global population and the African middle class explosion. She also mentioned the ‘flash of future’ through macro-skills – this means that transparency and flexibility are essential in business. In this light, marketers need to understand consumers and what drives consumer behaviour, such as their values, attitudes and aspirations. In order to do this, they should observe current trends in terms of future development, and derive conclusions for their business.

Macro trends worldwide and their effect on consumerism

Macro trends include macro-economic factors, such as globalisation; business and industry trends, such as the internet and nanotechnology; and social and environmental stressors, such as the fact that we all age with time and therefore can’t do as much as we used to, as quickly as we used to. These macro trends all impact on consumer trends, such as health and wellness, and what the shifting consumer market aspires to. Macro economic trends are important as they involve long-term transformation processes; and form the basis of corporate vision. They are thus drivers of future success for businesses, and consequently, large companies need to take note. Afterall, according to Hubertz, “the internet took more than 30 years to become the overnight success it is today.”

Hubertz feels that the current global recession will, in all likeliness, merely change consumers thinking and spending styles, and not result in as much of a downturn for business as initially expected. She says corporates should keep in mind that economic power shifts don’t necessarily translate to consumer power. There are large income gaps between the poor and the rich in developing countries, while developed countries are experiencing a loss of the middle class. Hubertz pointed out that 56% of black South Africans were living in poverty in 2003, while only 4% of our country’s white population was experiencing poverty at the time. There’s also a global ‘real middle class’ emerging, where people worldwide are experiencing similar aspirations and needs – this is the true impact of globalisation on consumers. Many poor countries now have a wealthy elite class forming. Hubertz mentions the annual Millionaire Fair, which takes place in Moscow and Shangai, as an example of this.

Hubertz states that the global population is expected to exceed 9-billion by 2050, and that world oil consumption will double in the next 20 years. We therefore need to find new energy sources, as: “the era of easy oil is over.”

Mobility and urbanisation has led to increased purchasing power and wealth, as there is more opportunity for big spending in the cities. We are also seeing shifting demographic patterns, such as blended families; ’20 somethings’ who still indulge in ‘teen’ behaviour and believe ‘if it’s not on the internet, it doesn’t exist’; and people only choosing to start having families in their 40s. This influences the way these ‘new’ consumer groups should be communicated with, as the clearly defined target markets of the past no longer exist.

Consumer trends

Hubertz moved on to discuss what makes a trend a trend. She said that trends are long-term; relevant across boundaries; and rooted in human needs. Therefore, to keep up with trends, corporates should connect with consumers. Changes in consumer needs should also be reflected in product offers. Trends need to be applied with a vision toward new business concepts, products and services, with the ultimate goal of offering consumers new experiences. The marketing, advertising and PR industries need to also change their strategies in communicating with consumers in such a way as to reflect that they have encompassed these new wants and needs.

Consumerism can be broken down into four main phases. Version 1.0 is consumerism at its most basic. This is when consumers buy and possess merely to ‘keep up with the Joneses’, based on status and materialism. Version 2.0 is driven by experiences such as going on holiday and travelling the world, as opposed to simply having more than others. Version 3.0 deals with creativity and participation. In this case, people aspire to have more knowledge and skills than their fellow competitors in the global race to be the best. The most evolved stage – consumerism version 4.0 – is to do with giving up time and possessions in order to show you care, and consuming in a way that does not harm others or the world around us. In a nutshell, consumerism 4.0 is based on being a green shopper and citizen of the world.

Next, Hubertz identified 12 main trends that will carry over from 2008 to 2009. These are: time as currency; digitalisation; simplification; health and wellbeing; solutions for individuals; premiumisation and luxury; smartness; striking experience; cocooning; authenticity and realness; independence and mobility; and social justice. She dealt with each trend individually.

1. Time as currency
This trend deals with a more evolved form of multi-tasking which Hubertz refers to as ‘hyper-tasking’. Multi-tasking refers to doing two or more tasks at the same time, where only one requires your attention - such as replying to an email while listening to the radio and drinking a cup of coffee. Hyper-tasking, however, involves doing more than one thing simultaneously, all of which require intense concentration, such as speaking to someone over the phone while writing an article. Consumers are drawn to brands they recognise. In 2007, Google surpassed Coke in becoming the strongest brand worldwide, due to its global recognition. Consumers also want to be ‘life editors’. They are drawn to brands that help them ‘edit’ the choices they make in order to simplify things, as time is money. Hubertz mentioned the Intel World Ahead programme, where the company invested $1-billion in order to enhance the lives of consumers in developing countries by providing them with full feature computers and the necessary infrastructure to become online citizens, thus proving them with more time to get things done.

2. Digitalisation
There is no doubt that digitalisation has had a huge impact on the economy and consumers. Today, people are turning to online and home shopping as it’s convenient. In terms of the future, Hubertz showed a fictional yet thought-provoking clip to the audience, whereby the New York Times online will shut down by 2014 and only exist in print format, as a nostalgic relic for the elite and the elderly. Due to the global sharing of information, we are more information-savvy and sophisticated than ever before.

3. Simplification
2009 consumers want to curb complexity as it turns shopping into a nightmare, due to the sheer quantity of product choice out there. Store structures and offerings need to change in order to meet consumer trends. Hubertz gave an example of the hair care products available in Germany, and how the shopping process was easier if brands were stocked together, as consumers tend to trust what they’ve used before, and what has been recommended through word-of-mouth referral. They are thus more likely to purchase the same brand of shampoo, conditioner and styling spray, instead of selecting their favourite of each from the myriad of brands available.

4. Health and wellbeing
Our understanding of wealth has changed from the past, when it simply meant being physically healthy, to now encapsulate overall wellness of the mind, body and soul. It’s about feeling good about who and what you are, and no longer necessarily about meeting a perfect ideal of ‘the ultimate in health’. There are a variety of products available these days aimed at improving one’s overall health and happiness, such as vitamin boosters, and even take-away food is now on the ‘health trend’, with smoothies and wraps a popular fast food choice as it’s simple and convenient, without the ‘after eating’ regret that often comes with ingesting fatty foods.

5. Solutions for individuals
Consumers have huge expectations nowadays, and aim to not be carbon copies of the Joneses, Li’s and Dlamini's next door. This links to the recent move from the mass brand to the ‘me-me-me’ brand. We aspire to individuality, and move away from conformity. Even when purchasing mass-produced goods that are recognised and coveted worldwide, such as iPods and Mini Coopers, people now take the time to customise the settings and options to their individual preferences. While traditional marketing sold products in the context of ‘buy this to prove you’re a good wife/mother/worker’, it’s now a case of ‘I am important and I deserve it’. We now have many roles to fill, often as wife, mother and worker, each of which comes with a set of expectations. We’ve thus evolved into individuals who no longer aspire to the same goals, but now have ever-changing goals to meet our ever-changing needs. It’s been a move away from affiliation and toward individualism. We aspire toward special / limited edition products, and personalised items, such as adidas sneakers, which can now be customised online. It’s a general attitude of ‘I don’t have to fit the brand, the brand has to fit me’.

6. Luxury and self-indulgence
Hubertz states that one generation’s indulgence is the next’s necessity. She adds that each generation wants – and has – more than the generation before. In this light, there’s been a move toward upscaling consumer experiences worldwide, such as when McDonald’s modernised its décor in most European stores in 2008, scrapping the familiar red-and-yellow plastic seating for comfortable, classy leather, and offering healthier meal options. The recently launched Nando’s Peri Deli stores, which have teamed up with Vida e Caffe coffee, is a good South African example of an accepted brand upping the stakes and offering consumers more options and self-indulgence than ever before.

7. Premiumisation
This refers to ‘massclusivity’, where exclusivity is offered to a select elite group, based on certain criteria. Premium products are often original, expensive, distinctive, and superior. Hubertz gave the example of a newly-launched toilet paper brand in Europe, which is of exceptional quality and comes in a variety of bright, trendy colours to perfectly match bathroom colours. Massclusivity comes at a price though, as a single roll of this toilet paper retails for the equivalent of R25. Hubertz also mentioned the ‘super hotels’, such as the Songjiang Hotel and the Dubai World hotels, which offer the best ‘green’ experience – to those who can afford it. People can afford to purchase more now than ever before, yet there are also far more exclusive products to purchase and aspire to. This results in ‘status despair’, due to the rise of the global middle class, which has led to a global influx of ‘HNWIs’, or High Net Worth Individuals. HNWIs feel that ‘being a millionaire just isn’t the same these days’, as they need to own and earn more than ever before in order to stand out from the rest.

8. Smartness
This is a key trend during the economic crisis. Consumerism is no longer just about affordability, but also about choosing how much to spend, and when you want to spend. Hubertz says this trend has led to the development of a new social class called ‘The Frugal Rich’, who have the money but think carefully before making the purchase. It’s about getting a good deal, and feeling good about your purchase. This links to empathy and seriousness. According to Hubertz, consumerism is no longer frivolous. Smart packaging, such as using recyclable materials, and printing a complete list of the ingredients on the box, is a big part of smartness on the part of producers, as it will result in increased consumer awareness and purchasing.

9. Striking experience
Today’s consumers are focused on living their best lives, which means having rich experiences, and surprises – moving back to the physical realm from the untouchable digital sphere. It’s about inner, spiritual richness and fulfilment, based on meeting the needs of all seven senses, and pleasing the mind, body and soul, particularly as consumers. Corporates should thus be offering more than is expected, in order to provide the best possible service and result in a ‘striking experience’of the brand, which will definitely be passed on in today’s hyper-connected world.

10. Cocooning
This trend, popularised by Futurist Faith Popcorn, promises the ‘home as a castle’. Today’s consumer wants to feel at home while at home, and not feel challenged by external stressors. They are therefore in the market for nostalgic, romantic products that make them feel safe and bring back good memories. Hubertz mentions the recent ‘local and global respect’ campaign undertaken by Absolut Vodka, which gave certain blends different flavours, names and associations, such as ‘Absolut Los Angeles’ and ‘Absolut Rome’. The campaign was a success as it made consumers feel cosmopolitan by indulging in this global brand, yet rooted in their specific locality.

11. Authenticity and realness
This trend is to do with trust, and is very important for 2009, according to Hubertz. She states that the market leader is always the most trusted product. Corporates should acknowledge that whether consumers trust products or not, they are bound to share their experience virally. They rate and compare their experiences online, and are strongly affected by others’ opinions. Dove embarked on a campaign to demonstrate ‘authentic beauty’ to emancipated women worldwide, who no longer aspire to a global ideal of beauty, but rather strive to be the best they can be, on their own terms. Hubertz sums this up as ‘the courage to stop running behind an unreachable ideal.’

12. Independence and social justice
Consumers in 2009 will aim for independence in terms of possessions and rules. Hubertz mentions the numerous iPod gadgets now available to transform the simple MP3 player into an entire home sound system, and the concept of sharing as opposed to owning, such as shared office space in London, and the bike rentals in France which have experienced a sudden spike in popularity due to their ease of use and convenience. There’s also been a global surge of independence of appliances, such as Zegnar’s ‘solar jacket’, which allows consumers to plug their portable appliances into portals on the jacket’s sleeve, and charge them using solar energy. Social justice can be summed up by the rise of ‘green buildings’ – these are highly modern structures, which have an overall energy balance of 0, meaning that energy consumption equals the energy creation. European countries are harnessing the power of wind power and solar energy. Hubertz also mentioned social justice in terms of eco-motoring. She spoke of what is known as ‘blossom car lights’, currently in production in Europe. These comprise of solar powered ‘petals’ that open in sunlight, and function as headlights. BMW has also repositioned its newer models as a ‘cheap to run’, in order to appeal to the current trend of social justice, where consumers are more aware of their impact on the environment. Consumers are also aware of the impact of the use of plastic shopping bags on the environment as opposed to eco-friendly woven bags, which can be washed and re-used ‘up to 2021 times’. This trend is a global example of ‘great minds thinking alike’.

In conclusion, Hubertz said that while it is wrong for consumers to spend beyond their means, we are all guilty of doing so as it is a consequence of the lifestyle we all aspire to, and the expensive brands associated with this. She adds that the umbrella trend for 2009 should be ‘happy endings’, as we look beyond the doom and gloom and create our own ‘happy endings’ as the silver lining of the economic recession. Consumers have realised that brands only care for them as consumers, and not as individuals. It’s up to each of us to create our own happy ending. Google’s recently launched ‘Project 10 to the 100th’ is an excellent example to aspire to, as the public are encouraged to submit their ideas on how to help others, in order to win their share of the $10 million to set up their projects.

2009’s consumers are looking beyond their immediate lives and striving to help other and the world around us as part of their social responsibility.