By Adam Wakefield 

User growth or bust? 

According to a report posted on The Verge in February this year, the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2015 saw Twitter’s user base actually shrink to 305 million active monthly users, from 307 million in Q3, excluding SMS Fast Followers. 

Colin Daniels, CEO of digital agency Grenade, says Twitter is desperately seeking new ways to attract and engage its users such as the recent agreement it signed with the NFL which allows it live streaming rights for certain games. That being said, Daniels feels user growth doesn’t tell the whole story.

“I believe that growth is largely an obsession that is driven by Wall Street and there isn't a direct correlation between user growth and relevance especially since growth can be artificially inflated,” Daniels says. “Brands and content marketers should be more concerned with engagement as it's the quality and relevance of the audience that really matters.”

PR and social media firm go4word notes that numbers are important, so a user decline should not be ignored. 

“With no increase in new users, but otherwise good financial performance, Twitter hasn't yet shown how it can rise from the troubling spot of not being able to grow the business,” the firm says, which answered Media Update’s questions as a collective. “There is also a possibility that the quality of Twitter’s users is deteriorating.”

Moving the goalposts to stay relevant

In January, Twitter began rolling out its algorithmic timeline, where popular tweets and trending topics would have greater importance compared to its past chronological ordering. 

Daniels says Twitter’s recent timeline changes is an attempt to become more relevant in an increasingly crowded market and, most importantly, create a sustainable revenue model for the business, as it faces a serious dilemma. 

“It needs to grow its user base and generate more revenue in order to keep its investors happy at the risk of annoying and isolating its users by changing the unique features that makes the platform attractive, namely; a simple timeline and uncluttered interface with little or no commercial interference,” Daniels explains.

go4word suggests the change to the timeline is keeping with current social media developments, trending towards maintaining accessibility for new users and to lower entry barriers by producing similar elements users are already familiar with.

“Twitter changing to an algorithmic timeline merely means followers are kept up-to-date with important information that is of interest to them. The change will also encourage advertisers to spend more in order to get their ad or promoted tweet the desired reach and placement,” they say.

Twitter is still getting plenty right

Twitter has its current problems, but according to Daniels, the platform still has plenty of upside to offer.

“A Pew Research Centre study on the demographics of key social networking platforms found that Twitter users are typically young, educated and urbanised. They also have higher disposable incomes than the average non-Twitter user which makes them a very attractive audience,” he says.

Further, despite Twitter’s problems in major markets like the United States, tweet volumes continue to grow year-on-year in Africa, which is still a relatively untapped market.

Grenade advises their clients to identify social networks most relevant to their target audience and tailor their strategy for each platform, instead of a one-size-fits-all approach.

“Based on our experience and the latest research, Twitter is still a powerful channel and it shouldn't be ignored by African brands and businesses,” Daniels says.

From a PR perspective, go4word says Twitter is a valuable social asset for any brand – from sourcing key influencers to live tweeting in order to drive brand message to a wider audience.

“It is still the most effective way to update your followers on current news and any crisis information that needs to be communicated within a short period of time,” they say. 

“Twitter has the ability to give any campaign momentum, unique creative qualities and bigger reach to get key messages across. It also offers a great opportunity to build strong relationships with media and influencers.” 

The digital world is fraught with uncertainty, and in the immediate future Twitter will be watched closely to see how it deals with its current problems.

Do you think Twitter’s long term future is bleak? Let us know in the comments below.